Mayar Capital’s Annual Prediction Competition 2018


If you’ve heard the following joke, please skip to the next paragraph.

 

Einstein dies and goes to heaven only to be informed that his room is not yet ready. “I hope you will not mind waiting in a dormitory. We are very sorry, but it’s the best we can do and you will have to share the room with others” he is told by the doorman.

Einstein says that this is no problem at all and that there is no need to make such a great fuss. So the doorman leads him to the dorm. They enter and Albert is introduced to all of the present inhabitants. “See, here is your first roommate. He has an IQ of 180!”

“That’s wonderful!” says Albert. “We can discuss mathematics!”

“And here is your second roommate. His IQ is 150!”

“That’s wonderful!” says Albert. “We can discuss physics!”

“And here is your third roommate. His IQ is 100!”

“That’s wonderful! We can discuss the latest plays at the theater!”

Just then another man moves out to capture Albert’s hand and shake it. “I’m your last roommate and I’m sorry, but my IQ is only 80.”

Albert smiles back at him and says, “So, where do you think interest rates are headed?”

Joke courtesy of workjoke.com

January is a month where a lot of people, in person and on television, share their ridiculously precise predictions of where the S&P500, the yield on ten-year bonds, and other financial indicators will be at by yearend. I myself am frequently asked about my prediction of the market. So, given my well-known disdain for short-term market predictions, I thought it would be funny to start a new annual prediction competition.

Every January we will pick three things and ask readers, whether partners in the fund or not, to guess where they will be at yearend. Mayar Capital will then donate $1,000 to the charity chosen by the winner.

This year’s three things to predict are:

  1. The price of oil (Brent)
  2. The share price of Tesla, Inc.
  3. And, most ridiculous of all, the price of one Bitcoin in US Dollars

Please submit  your guesses by May 31st here

Results will be announced in the December 2018 quarterly letter.

 

First published in Mayar Fund’s Letter to Partners – December 2017 

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