Just rediscovered one of my favorite pieces of market wisdom from Oakmark’s Bill Nygren:
In case you are tempted to think the past 25 years was a positive “perfect storm” for equity prices (the real Perfect Storm with 100 foot waves off the East Coast did occur in 1991), let’s remember, chronologically, some of the key events that market-timers cited as reasons to not invest in stocks:
Operation Desert Storm, global recession, Hillarycare, Fed increasing rates, Oklahoma City bombing, U.S. government shutdown, Mad Cow disease, Asian Flu, Clinton impeachment, Y2K, tech bubble, 9/11, Afghan War, recession, Iraq War, SARS, Hurricane Katrina, subprime mortgage crisis, Lehman Brothers, Obamacare, real estate collapse, Global Financial Crisis, Greek bailout, S&P downgrading U.S. debt, oil price collapse, Ebola, Ukraine, Syrian migrant crisis, and Brexit—just to name a few.
Yes, that all happened, and the market still went up more than ninefold. So, next time someone tells you that stocks can’t possibly go up because the Fed has to raise interest rates or because Congress is doing something stupid or because we have the worst presidential candidates ever, remember the very high hurdle that exists for altering your long-term asset allocation based on current events.
Bill Nygren Market Commentary | 3Q16 – Oakmark