My Circle of Competence

You don’t have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital. -Warren Buffett (1996)” Last weekend I attended the 7th Annual “From Graham to…

On the Process of Investment

In retrospect, my comments in the December 2015 letter turned out to have been very timely. I cannot take all the credit for that, however, I think the timing was mostly luck. What I said remains as true today as it was then. The risks I mentioned have not diminished and I continue to expect volatility to remain high. But volatility and risk…

Clips from Abdulaziz Alnaim’s interview with the Manual of Ideas

I was recently interviewed by the wonderful publication, The Manual of Ideas, where we discussed various issues related to our strategy and to investing in general. I would like to share the following three clips from that interview with you. I hope you enjoy them.   Abdulaziz Alnaim on Market Efficiency and Why Value Investing…

What’s Happening, 2016?

I’ve visited some of you over the past few weeks and many of you were wondering about our 2016 view and where we see things heading. Let me start by saying that you will never hear me share a forecast of where I think the market will be heading over the next twelve months. The…

On Recent Market Volatility

Dear reader, The following post was first published in Mayar Fund’s Letter to Partners for the quarter ending September 30, 2015 . Due to the nature of the content and for the sake of better formatting, I have kept it in its original PDF format (portions have been redacted for compliance reasons) which you can access by…

On Investment Return

When we set about a journey to make money as investors, one vital question that we must understand at the outset, is how that will be accomplished. Our answer must be deeper than a simple one like “buy a stock and see it go up”; we must understand how wealth is created by our investments….

Are Markets Overvalued Today?

There’s been a lot of discussion in the media recently about whether or not stock markets are overvalued. While some indicators suggest there might be some truth to that statement, you are all familiar with my approach by now: I do not believe that anybody can predict where markets will head over the next week,…

Q4 General Commentary

Global markets experienced increased volatility during this quarter, first dropping in the middle of October, recovering in November, and then pulling back again in December. Currencies were also volatile, but generally the US dollar moved into a stronger position against most major currencies. Despite this variability, no change has been more significant this year than…

SPECIAL SALE AT YOUR LOCAL MALL!

What would be your reaction if you came across the above flyer at your local mall (apart from criticizing its poor design)? Excitement, maybe? It’s remarkable how different people react when they come across the same “flyer” advertising sales at the stock market. In USD terms, Nestle, the maker of KitKat, is down 10% since…

A Brief 50-Year History of the Value of a US Dollar

There’s been an article circulating lately about the “imminent collapse” of the US Dollar, the demise of its purchasing power and, by extension, the need to panic and move into bunkers. I’ve got news for you, though. The US Dollar has been “collapsing” for a very long time. Here are some numbers: Since 1964 (50 years),…